Governor races split 18-18 as 19 open seats reshape state leadership
With polls open across the country, voters will decide which party holds the majority of governorships, a race that has not tipped to Democrats since 2010.
By Ayanda Kaminski ·
The 36 governor races on Tuesday's ballot present a rare mathematical symmetry. According to Ballotpedia, Republicans and Democrats each hold 18 of the 36 governorships currently up for election. This even split sets the stage for a decisive contest for control of statehouses across the nation. The outcome will determine which party holds a nationwide majority of governorships, a position Republicans have maintained since 2010. Democrats need a net gain of just two seats to claim that majority for the first time in two decades.
A significant factor in this balance is the number of open seats. Ballotpedia reports that 19 of the 36 races have no incumbent on the ballot. Fifteen governors are term-limited and must step down. Three others, including Iowa's Kim Reynolds, Minnesota's Tim Walz, and Wisconsin's Tony Evers, chose not to seek re-election. Rhode Island's Daniel McKee is the fourth, having lost his primary. These vacancies allow challengers to define the race without the name recognition of a sitting officeholder.
Nine states are considered battlegrounds for governor, according to Ballotpedia: Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, and Wisconsin. In these states, the margin of victory could be slim, and local issues may outweigh national trends. Democrats are defending five governorships in states that Donald Trump won in 2024: Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Republicans are defending two governorships in states that Kamala Harris won: New Hampshire and Vermont. This cross-partisan dynamic highlights the complexity of the current political landscape.
Specific matchups are drawing national attention. In Georgia, Republican health care executive Rick Jackson faces Democratic former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms to succeed Brian Kemp. In Nevada, Republican Governor Joe Lombardo runs against Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford. In Ohio, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy faces Democrat Amy Acton. Ramaswamy's campaign has faced recent scrutiny over an advertisement featuring Acton's estranged mother. The Associated Press also identifies Texas, Florida, and Iowa as competitive governor races, suggesting that the fight for state leadership is fierce beyond the nine officially designated battlegrounds.
The mood among voters is shaped by economic concerns and the performance of the incumbent administration. The Associated Press describes the election as a referendum on President Trump's second term, noting that voters are struggling with high prices and are angry over an unpopular war with Iran. In an AP-NORC poll, 35 percent of U.S. adults approved of Trump's job performance, while 25 percent approved of his handling of the economy. About seven in 10 respondents said the country is heading in the wrong direction. Most of those voters blamed the president for high prices. These figures suggest that economic dissatisfaction is a primary driver of voter sentiment on election day.
Turnout is the critical variable for the Republican Party. RNC Chairman Joe Gruters stated that everything depends on turnout and that the party wins if it turns out its voters. This emphasis on participation reflects the party's strategy to offset the typical midterm loss of seats for the president's party. More than 57 million people had already voted as of Monday, surpassing early vote totals from four years ago in many closely watched states. This high level of early participation indicates a robust engagement with the process, regardless of the final tally.
Money plays a significant role in shaping the message voters receive. The 2026 elections are likely to be the most expensive in history. Republican committees outraised and outspent Democratic committees, aided by Trump-affiliated groups and Elon Musk. However, at the candidate level, Democrats outraised their opponents. An AP analysis of AdImpact data shows that 88.1 percent of Republican general election TV ad spending went to states and districts Trump won in 2024. This includes more than $850 million in states where he won by 10 points or more. This spending strategy suggests a focus on consolidating support in strong Republican areas.
Voters are expressing their views on the issues that matter to them. Mark Barker of Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, told the AP that he has been following Trump and believes he is doing an awesome job. In contrast, James Moore, a 57-year-old librarian in Raleigh, North Carolina, said he is paying more taxes, more for healthcare, and more for everything. These anecdotal accounts reflect the broader divide in public opinion. The AP notes that Republicans were bracing to lose the House and fighting to hold the Senate, while Democrats were cautiously optimistic. One or two seats could tip either chamber, making the governor races a crucial component of the overall balance of power.
The administration's actions have also influenced the election environment. A federal judge temporarily barred the Trump administration from carrying out a plan to prevent noncitizen voting, a move critics say risks disenfranchising eligible voters. The administration also sued in Alaska and California regarding election certification and ballot handling. Democrats have expressed concern about interference and intimidation, particularly as the Justice Department threatens to prosecute local election officials. These legal battles add a layer of complexity to the election day process, potentially affecting how votes are counted and certified.
Wall Street is watching the results with close attention, as Reuters notes that outcomes could impact investor concerns about AI spending and debt ceiling negotiations. The stability of state governments is a key factor in economic policy. If Democrats win a majority of governorships, it could lead to increased investigations and oversight, particularly if they also control Congress. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has outlined a 100-day agenda focused on the cost of living and oversight, signaling a shift in priorities if his party gains power. The stakes extend beyond statehouses, influencing the national political trajectory for the remainder of the term.
