Tight Knesset race leaves leadership uncertain

Israel’s parliamentary election has produced a razor-thin margin between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot. Neither bloc appears poised to secure the 61 seats required to form a government, leaving the country’s political direction in a state of flux following Tuesday’s vote.

Late-night exit polls from Channel 12 projected that the Netanyahu bloc would capture 52 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. Eisenkot’s opposition bloc, led by his Yashar party, was projected to win 49 seats. Channel 13 offered a slightly different projection, indicating a tie with 51 seats each for the two major blocs. Within those numbers, Netanyahu’s Likud party is expected to emerge as the single largest party with an estimated 27 seats, compared to 21 for Eisenkot’s Yashar party.

Arab parties are projected to win a collective 19 seats, maintaining their influence from the 2022 cycle. Because Israeli voters select parties rather than individual prime ministers, the outcome of this vote depends on post-election coalition building. No single party has ever won a majority on its own, meaning the final government will be determined by negotiations among smaller factions.

Eisenkot claimed victory at his party headquarters, declaring that the Israeli public voted for change and that the old era was over. In contrast, Netanyahu told supporters that Likud’s status as the largest party was decisive and called for a national right-wing government. He accused television channels of projecting stronger results for opposition parties in an attempt to discourage his base from voting.

Far-right figures expressed confidence in their respective gains. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich projected his party would win seven seats and pledged to continue expanding settlements in the occupied West Bank. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir praised his Otzma Yehudit party’s performance, noting that the party had not previously existed on the political scene. Democrats leader Yair Golan stated on social media that voters had fired the Netanyahu government and pledged to work with partners to form a new administration.

The Central Elections Committee reported that 77.7 percent of eligible voters participated, marking the highest turnout since 1999. This figure is up 7.1 percentage points from the 2022 election. Turnout among soldiers exceeded 68 percent by 5 pm local time, and more than 60,000 Israelis returned from abroad to cast their ballots. Polling stations closed at 10 pm, though those already in line were permitted to vote.

Accusations of incitement also emerged from the vote. Yousef Jabareen, leader of the Joint List, said in a video statement that Netanyahu knew Arab voters could end his reign. Mansour Abbas, leader of the United Arab List, described Netanyahu’s comments as a scare tactic to mobilize right-wing voters. Netanyahu responded with a series of posts on X, accusing Arab voters of supporting the Muslim Brotherhood and stealing the elections, while urging right-wing Israelis to vote for Likud as a matter of life and death.

Preliminary official results are expected on Wednesday, with the final vote tally due by Friday and formal publication on November 4. President Isaac Herzog will consult with party leaders to nominate a prime minister candidate, who then has 42 days to form a government. If negotiations fail, Netanyahu’s current cabinet will remain as a caretaker government until new elections are called.