Iowa Senate Race Ends With $200 Million in Spending

Democratic candidate Josh Turek and Republican challenger Ashley Hinson concluded a high-stakes contest for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by retiring Sen. Joni Ernst. Polls closed across the state on Tuesday, marking the end of a campaign that drew hundreds of millions of dollars in advertising. This election is one of several pivotal races that will determine control of the Senate in the midterm elections.

Iowa has historically voted red since President Barack Obama’s reelection victory in 2012. However, the state reemerged as a battleground this year as President Donald Trump’s popularity waned during his second term. The simultaneous retirements of Sen. Ernst and Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds created the first cycle without incumbents seeking the top-of-the-ticket seats since 1968. This vacuum gave Democrats an opportunity to challenge years of electoral failures in the region.

Democrats aimed to capitalize on voter frustration regarding rising prices, the ongoing Iran war, and tariffs that disrupted the state’s dominant agricultural industry. The party invested in an expansive and well-financed ground game to counter Republican advantages. State Auditor Rob Sand, the Democratic nominee for governor, ran against Republican candidate Zach Lahn in a competitive gubernatorial race. In the Senate contest, Libertarian Thomas Laehn also appeared on the ballot, potentially complicating Hinson’s efforts by securing votes from some conservative voters.

Turek, a two-term state representative and former Paralympian, sought to follow the political path of former Sen. Tom Harkin. Born with spina bifida, a condition Turek attributes to his father’s chemical exposure during the Vietnam War, he credits Harkin’s work on the Americans with Disabilities Act for his own success. For three decades, Iowans sent a bipartisan pair to the Senate, including Grassley and Harkin. Ernst ended that tradition when she won Harkin’s seat in 2014.

Hinson, currently serving her third term in the U.S. House, previously worked as a news anchor in northeast Iowa before becoming a state representative. She launched her Senate bid on the same day Ernst announced her retirement, quickly earning endorsements from Trump and other Republican leaders. Obama endorsed Turek following his primary victory. Despite a challenging environment for Republicans, Democrats faced a statewide voter registration disadvantage as the electorate shifted further right in recent years.

Hinson initially promised to be Trump’s top ally in the Senate but shifted her message later in the campaign to position herself as Iowa’s best bipartisan fighter. This pivot aligned with other Republicans who sharpened their rhetoric as the Iran war dragged on and fuel prices rose. In September, after House members were sent home, Hinson stated that Iowans should not have to foot the bill for the war. She did not join fellow Iowa Republicans Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks in voting with Democrats on a resolution to halt military action without congressional approval. Hinson argued that the resolution was not the right way to ensure Trump could bring the war to an immediate and successful end.

Republican-aligned groups poured money into Iowa in the final weeks to support Hinson. The White House maintained its attention on the state with visits from the president, vice president, and Cabinet officials throughout the campaign. Iowa Republicans almost entirely control state government and make up the state’s federal delegation exclusively. The outcome of this rare open seat will reflect the shifting dynamics in a state that has traditionally favored one party but recently displayed deeper divisions.