Admission odds rise to 70% as colleges court applicants

Colleges are actively recruiting students who previously would have only responded to outreach.

The shift is driven by a 13% projected decline in the supply of traditional-age freshmen over the next 15 years. The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education reports this trend. Concurrently, the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the proportion of high school graduates choosing college dropped from 70% in 2016 to 63% in 2024.

Admissions data reflects this pressure. The National Association for College Admission Counseling reports that nearly 7 in 10 first-year applicants to private colleges are now accepted. That figure stands at 70%, up from 65% a decade ago. For public institutions, the acceptance rate is nearly 80%. The American Enterprise Institute finds that nearly 9 in 10 private, nonprofit four-year colleges admit half or more of their applicants. Only 33 institutions in the country admit 10% or fewer of undergraduate applicants.

Marc Conner, president of Skidmore College, leads one of the few institutions making a concerted push to change its culture. Skidmore currently has 2,719 students. While its acceptance rate has fallen from 37% to 24% over ten years, Conner states that the college faces the same headwinds as peers. He notes that the school depends on students visiting campuses and then enrolling. To achieve this, Skidmore has enlisted faculty to meet with prospective students, a role previously reserved for the admissions office.

This strategy aims to counter a phenomenon known as yield decline. Federal data indicates that yield at private, nonprofit colleges fell from 24% in 2014 to 18% in 2024. Public college yield dropped from 32% to 22% over the same period. Common App users now apply to an average of more than seven schools. This behavior makes it difficult for enrollment managers to predict which admitted students will pay their deposits.

Jess Ricker, Skidmore’s vice president for enrollment, says the faculty involvement helps students feel valued. More than 300 admitted students requested personal visits with faculty members last year. Psychology Department Chair Becca Johnson reports that these interactions influence decisions. One parent told Johnson that a faculty contact was the first communication from outside the admissions office, making a meaningful difference in their child's choice.

Ninety-seven percent of admissions leaders expect competition to increase, according to a Niche survey. Two-thirds reported trouble meeting enrollment targets in the last two years. Rob Springall, a consultant at WittKieffer, says enrollment leaders are telling staff that every interaction counts. Colleges are moving from a posture of rejection to one of active pursuit to secure the limited pool of incoming students.