Ad spending targets 70 House districts

Democratic control of the House appears imminent as ad spending data reveals a competitive environment spanning 70 districts.

The path to the current state of the race began with the 2024 presidential cycle, where narrow margins in ten districts shifted toward Democrats. Those districts include seats held by Rep. Adam Gray in California, Rep. Nellie Pou in New Jersey, and Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington. Retiring Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska also held a seat in this category. In these specific areas, Republican candidates have reduced their ad reservations in recent weeks, according to data from AdImpact.

A mid-decade redistricting effort further altered the political map. Following a Supreme Court decision that limited parts of the Voting Rights Act, Republican leaders redrew boundaries in several states. They added conservative voters to districts previously held by Democratic Reps. Marcy Kaptur in Ohio, Don Davis in North Carolina, Shomari Figures in Alabama, and Darren Soto in Florida. Democrats engaged in similar redistricting in California, affecting districts held by Republican Reps. James Gallagher, David Valadao, Ken Calvert, and Darrell Issa, as well as independent Rep. Kevin Kiley. Only Figures and Soto remain in districts currently rated as favoring the GOP.

The upcoming schedule for the final week of campaigning focuses on high-cost targets. Michigan's 7th District and North Carolina's 1st District are projected to receive more than $12 million in spending each. Other major expenditures are planned for Florida's 14th, 22nd, and 25th Districts; New York's 17th District; and Iowa's 2nd and 3rd Districts. These races include areas redrawn to minimize Democratic voting power, such as Alabama's 2nd and Tennessee's 9th, as well as districts where President Trump won by more than 10 points in 2024, including Kentucky's 6th and Arkansas's 2nd.

The 70 districts with at least six figures in ad spending from each party voted for Trump by an average of 9 points in 2024. Sixty of these districts are listed as priorities by both the Democratic and Republican House campaign arms. The latest ratings from the Cook Political Report list Democrats as favored in 220 seats, with 17 designated as toss-ups and 30 leaning toward the GOP. A recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll shows Democrats holding a 10-point advantage among registered voters and an 8-point lead with likely voters on the generic congressional ballot.