7.7 Million Texans Voted Early in Record-Setting Midterm Contest

More than 7.7 million Texans cast ballots in the early voting period for the U.S. Senate race, a figure that accounts for 40.5% of the state’s 19 million eligible voters. The Texas Secretary of State’s office confirmed this as the highest participation rate recorded for a midterm election in the state.

The contest pits Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton against state Representative James Talarico. Polling data indicates Talarico holds a slim lead, with the margin varying by survey methodology. This is the first time in decades that a Democratic candidate for the state’s Senate seat has led most major opinion polls.

Campaign spending has reached historic levels, with over $500 million invested across both tickets. Paxton has received substantial financial backing from Elon Musk, the world’s wealthiest individual, following a shift in polling trends that favored Talarico after the summer months.

Voter behavior in border regions is a focal point of the election. The Hispanic community has shown historic turnout in areas that heavily supported President Trump in 2024. Analysts are watching how the administration’s strict immigration policies have influenced this demographic’s choices in the current cycle.

The last Democrat to win a Senate seat in Texas was Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. He secured re-election with over 3.1 million votes against Republican Beau Boulter’s 2.1 million. Since that victory, Republicans have maintained an unbroken hold on the state’s Senate representation. John Cornyn held the seat for 24 years before losing the primary to Paxton after receiving President Trump’s endorsement.

A victory for Talarico would end a 38-year stretch of Democratic losses in the state’s Senate elections. A win for Paxton would extend Republican control of the seat. The outcome also carries national weight, as the result will influence the partisan balance of the U.S. Senate for the remainder of the current administration's term.