Michigan House Races Decide Congressional Control

Michigan voters will decide the balance of power in the US House on Nov. 3, as three state districts are rated toss-ups. The 4th, 7th and 10th Congressional Districts could determine whether Republicans retain their slim four-seat majority or Democrats flip the chamber. National campaigns are pouring resources into these local contests, turning them into high-stakes battles for the final two years of President Donald Trump's term.

The 7th District in mid-Michigan has become the most expensive race in the state. First-term Republican Rep. Tom Barrett faces progressive Democrat Will Lawrence. Ad spending has reached nearly $60 million, making it one of the costliest midterm contests. Lawrence and his supporters have spent more than $33 million, while Barrett and his backers have spent more than $27 million. The race is viewed as a bellwether for the House. Marty Jordan, a political science professor at Michigan State University, stated that if Democrats do not win this seat, it would be highly unlikely they retake the chamber.

In Southwest Michigan, the 4th District pits incumbent Republican Rep. Bill Huizenga against Democratic state Sen. Sean McCann. Huizenga has held the seat since 2011, winning by roughly 11 percentage points in recent elections. Cook Political Report shifted the district from likely Republican to toss-up last month. John Clark, a professor at Western Michigan University, noted that McCann brings a name recognition and fundraising capability that previous challengers lacked. Turnout in Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, and Benton Harbor will be the key factor, particularly among college students.

The 10th District in metro Detroit is an open seat because incumbent Republican John James is running for governor. Republican Michael Bouchard, a US Army veteran and son of former Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, competes against Democratic prosecutor Christina Hines. Bouchard campaigns on border security and tariffs, while Hines focuses on health care costs and reducing money in politics. Dave Dulio, a political science professor at Oakland University, said Bouchard’s name recognition could help in the voting booth. He identified Center Line and Eastpointe as critical areas where Bouchard must remain close to Hines to have a chance of winning the district.

Nationally, Republicans hold the House by four seats. In Michigan, Republicans currently represent 7 of the 13 congressional districts. One incumbent has already lost: Rep. Shri Thanedar was defeated in the Democratic primary by state Rep. Donavan McKinney, who is a heavy favorite to win the 13th District. Democrats are also targeting the 1st District, where Republican Rep. Jack Bergman defends his seat against Callie Barr. Bergman won by more than 20 percentage points two years ago, but the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee now lists the race as one to watch. Barr cited the trade war with Canada and the Iran War as reasons for voter optimism, while the Michigan Republican Party maintains that Bergman’s seat is solid.